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Constraining the Uncertainty Cascade in Estimating Flood Damages: Data-rich and Data-poor Sites



Important description
To date the assessment of exposure to flood risk in land use planning and the insurance industry has been based on deterministic assessments of flood frequency, flood hazard maps, and vulnerability. All of these components are, however, uncertain and such uncertainties might change the way in which planning and commercial decisions are made. Little is known about how these different sources of uncertainty might interact in the assessment process and how they might be constrained by the collection of both physical and financial data. This study will, by the use of appropriate local case studies involving both fluvial and pluvial flooding, aim to assess the dominant sources of uncertainty for different types of decision and the way in which those uncertainties might be constrained by different types of conditioning on available data. Case studies will include data rich and data poor sites for which models are currently either being revised or developed by Ambiental. Sources of uncertainty considered will include the estimation of flood frequencies (and potential future change in frequencies); rainfall-runoff and flood routing model configurations and parameters; and the assessment of damages.

Ambivalent will provide training in catastrophe modelling for the insurance industry and access to the relevant flood risk assessment software they are developing. The student and both supervisors will meet at least quarterly, with the student spending extended visits to the case partner during all 3 years of the project. During these visits the student will be integrated into Ambiental and the other projects. Ambiental will work as closely as possible with the student since one objective of the project is to train a likely new recruit for the company.

Prospective students should have a good background in hydrology, with an interest in computer modelling. Some knowledge of statistical methodologies in estimating uncertainties would be advantageous but training will be given by the supervisory team.

Application process
Please upload a CV and a covering letter outlining your background and suitability for this project at LEC Postgraduate Research Applications, http://www.findaphd.com/common/clickCount.aspx?theid=38992&type=75&url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.lec.lancs.ac.uk%2fpostgraduate%2fpgresearch%2fapply-online%3fphd_id%3d99"" target=""_blank"" rel=""nofollow""> http://www.lec.lancs.ac.uk/postgraduate/pgresearch/apply-online?phd_id=99 . You also require 2 references, please send the reference form (download from http://www.findaphd.com/common/clickCount.aspx?theid=38992&type=75&url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.lec.lancs.ac.uk%2fdocs%2fPG_Reference_Form.docx"" target=""_blank"" rel=""nofollow""> http://www.lec.lancs.ac.uk/docs/PG_Reference_Form.docx ) to your 2 referees and ask them to email it to Andy Harrod (http://www.FindAPhD.com/search/EmailEnquiry.aspx?fapjid=38992&LID=722&EA=lec.pg@lancaster.ac.uk"">lec.pg@lancaster.ac.uk ), Postgraduate Research (PGR) Co-ordinator, Lancaster Environment Centre by the deadline.

Due to the limited time between the closing date and the interview date, it is essential that you ensure references are submitted by the closing date or as soon as possible.

Please do not apply via the Lancaster University online application system.

For further information please read: http://www.findaphd.com/common/clickCount.aspx?theid=38992&type=75&url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.lec.lancs.ac.uk%2fdocs%2fLECPG%2fPhD_Flooding_KB.pdf"" target=""_blank"" rel=""nofollow""> http://www.lec.lancs.ac.uk/docs/LECPG/PhD_Flooding_KB.pdf


Eligibility and other criteria
This research project has funding attached. Funding for this project is available to citizens of a number of European countries (including the UK). In most cases this will include all EU nationals. However full funding may not be available to all applicants and you should read the full department and project details for further information.


Application deadline
*25 April 2013


Additional information, and important URL
http://www.findaphd.com/common/clickCount.aspx?theid=38992&type=75&url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.lec.lancs.ac.uk%2fdocs%2fLECPG%2fPhD_Flooding_KB.pdf""
http://www.FindAPhD.com/search/EmailEnquiry.aspx?fapjid=38992&LID=722&EA=lec.pg@lancaster.ac.uk"">lec.pg@lancaster.ac.uk
http://www.lec.lancs.ac.uk/docs/PG_Reference_Form.docx
http://www.lec.lancs.ac.uk/postgraduate/pgresearch/apply-online?phd_id=99
http://www.lec.lancs.ac.uk/docs/LECPG/PhD_Flooding_KB.pdf
http://www.findaphd.com/common/clickCount.aspx?theid=38992&type=75&url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.lec.lancs.ac.uk%2fpostgraduate%2fpgresearch%2fapply-online%3fphd_id%3d99""
http://www.findaphd.com/common/clickCount.aspx?theid=38992&type=75&url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.lec.lancs.ac.uk%2fdocs%2fPG_Reference_Form.docx""

Studentship will provide a stipend (£13,590 2012/13 [tax free]) and UK/EU tuition fees for 3 years and 6 months and is supported by a CASE partner; this provides an additional stipend payment (£1,000 per year for 3 years) and project support.

Full studentships are available to UK/EU candidates who have been ordinarily resident in the UK throughout the 3-year period immediately preceding the date of an award. EU candidates who have not been ordinarily resident in the UK for the last 3 years are eligible for ""tuition fees-only"" awards (no maintenance grant). Unfortunately studentships are not available to non-UK/EU applicants.


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